Bill O'Reilly's biggest nightmare is coming true. He said as much last night on Fox News:
"The white establishment is now the minority. And the voters, many of them, feel that the economic system is stacked against them and they want stuff. You are going to see a tremendous Hispanic vote for President Obama. Overwhelming black vote for President Obama. And women will probably break President Obama's way. People feel that they are entitled to things and which candidate, between the two, is going to give them things? ...
"The demographics are changing," he said. "It's not a traditional America anymore."
The Pew Research Center breakdown for the demographics in the U.S. by 2050 is 47% "White," "29%" Hispanic," 13% "Black," and 9% "Asian." Women already outnumber men in the general population by about 2 percentage points. For once, Bill O'Reilly is right. The demographics are changing, and the question is, what lessons will the Republican Party take from O'Reilly's observations?
Leaving aside the vaguely racist undertones of O'Reilly's statement, there's some wisdom there for the GOP. That the economic system is stacked against these minority voters (and women), is what many in the "progressive" wing of the Democratic party have been saying for decades. Many of these voters tend toward the middle and lower rungs of the economic spectrum. That wealthier people benefit more from laissez-faire economic policies than the less-well off is an idea that seems to mystify no one except the leadership of the Republican Party, and their "tea-party" mouthpieces and supporters.
This election was not about abortion, or foreign policy, or Sandy, or even really heath care or the deficit. It was about policies of voter-suppression and the continued marginalization of the economic underclass. Poll after poll suggest that women are generally as likely to hold pro-life positions as men. What the polling does suggest, is that women disproportionately oppose foreign military intervention, and worry more about loss of funding for social programs, such as food stamps and medicaid. These are also issues which concern people of middle and lower incomes.
The GOP could, perhaps, come up with policies to address these problems. There may be solutions that fit the "free-market" approach the Republican Party likes to claim as its own. There are no doubt very capable, intelligent people in the GOP, and they may be able to sell these solutions to 21st Century Americans. But as long as conservatives are stuck in the endless droning on about "lower taxes," and trapped in the Reaganesque time warp of the "supply side," and "running government like a business," they will continue to fail with these new demographic realities. People who live paycheck to paycheck, or have to rely on food stamps to feed their families don't benefit from lower income taxes. Their investment portfolios don't see dramatic gains from cutting the capital gains rate. Their children don't become wealthier by doing away with estate taxes.
The Great American Myth of the "self-made man" is starting to crumble. Ever since human beings banded together and formed civil societies, there has been no such thing. We are all interdependent upon each other and, in turn, on the society in which we live. Every individual success story is really a testament to the collective effort of human beings to create the circumstances in which that success occurs. Unless we are willing to all go back to being subsistence farmers, that will continue to be the case.
Many of us whom demographers classify as "white," have swallowed the Myth for generations, even in lower economic classes, because we've been inculcated with it by our schools, our parents and our leaders. There are new generations coming, however, whose parents have seen the reality that unfettered corporate autonomy and "every man for himself" economic policies create. Every society eventually has to face the realities of the inequalities of the distribution of wealth, and how that society deals with the problem generally defines whether that society thrives or declines.
The Republican Party can be a part of the solution. The best ideas come about after debating the relative merits of differing viewpoints. But clinging to outmoded policies that benefit only a very few, is a recipe for disaster, not only for that political party, but for any nation foolish enough to embrace them.
I invite Republicans to listen to Bill O'Reilly's observations, then ditch him, and others like him who long for a "Traditional America" that doesn't exist and never did. People don't just "feel" entitled to things; they are entitled to a government that doesn't treat them like employees, but like partners, a government that recognizes that there are no "traditional" Americans, only people now living in American society and trying to make it work for them.
If they don't, they may be in for more disappointment, as the country moves on without them.
